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Retail inflation eased significantly in November, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) growing just 3.63 per cent, its slowest rate in two years, due to a sharp slowdown in food inflation.
Growth in the CPI was 4.2 per cent in October, and has been steadily slowing since July, when it was 6 per cent.
This was mostly due to food inflation, which registered its 4th consecutive month of slowdown, coming in at 2.56 % in November from 8 % in July.
The Reserve Bank of India had, in its latest policy review, kept interest rates unchanged citing concerns over the possibility of firming oil prices fuelling higher inflation.
While the demonetisation of high-value currency notes has hit consumption expenditure, core inflation has largely remained stable.
The fall in retail inflation seems to be on the back of a favourable base effect coupled with some downside due to the move to demonetise.
The case for reducing interest rate by the time of the next RBI policy review would have become stronger.
Overall, the (core inflation) number is likely to remain below the RBI’s threshold of 5 per cent for March 2017 in the coming months and should pave the way for another 25 bps cut in the coming months.