As predicted, the deep depression in the Arabian Sea has intensified into a cyclone “Sagar”, the first cyclonic storm of the season to develop in the Indian waters.
CURRENT POSITION OF SAGAR & EXPECTED MOVEMENTS
- At present, the cyclone Sagar is seen overthe Gulf of Aden near latitude 13.2°N and longitude 48.7°E, around 400 km east-northeast of Aden in Yemen and 560 km west-northwest of Socotra Islands.
- With the system moving in open waters, it is expected to gain more strength and sustain the strength of a tropical storm for at least next 12 hours.
- Thereafter, as predicted earlier, the system would gradually start weakening on account of close proximity to the coast.
- Sagar is most likely to continue tracking westwards during the next 12 hours and then west-southwestwards in the subsequent 24 hours, while sea conditions are expected to remain rough.
FACTS OF SAGAR
- The Tropical Depression 1A was named ‘Sagar’ by the Indian Meteorological Department, the agency with the primary responsibility of tropical cyclone forecasting in the North Indian Ocean, including the Arabian Sea.
- Cyclonic storm: A tropical cyclone is anintense low-pressure area or a whirl in the atmosphere over tropical or sub-tropical waters, with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm activity) and winds at low levels, circulating either anti-clockwise (in the northern hemisphere) or clockwise (in the southern hemisphere).
HOW DO CYCLONES FORM
- Tropical cyclones require certain conditions for their formation as given below:
- A source of warm, moist air derived from tropical oceans with sea surface temperature normally near to or in excess of 27 °C
- Winds near the ocean surface blowing from different directions converging and causing air to rise and storm clouds to form
- Winds which do not vary greatly with height - known as low wind shear. This allows the storm clouds to rise vertically to high levels;
- Coriolisforce/spin induced by the rotation of the Earth. The formation mechanisms vary across the world, but once a cluster of storm clouds starts to rotate, it becomes a tropical depression. If it continues to develop, it becomes a tropical storm, and later a cyclone/ super cyclone.
HOW WILL IT IMPACT INDIA
- The cyclonic storm, Sagar is less likely to have any significant impact on coastal Gujarat as the storm is moving towards the Gulf of Oman.
- However, the state administration has already initiated precautionary measures including hosting of Distant Warning (DW) signal number 2 at all major ports along the Gujarat coast.
- High wind speed: Gale winds speed reaching 75-85 kmph gusting to 95 kmph is very likely around the system centre covering Gulf of Aden and adjoining areas of west central and southwest Arabian Sea during the next 12 hrs and gradual decrease thereafter becoming 65-75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph during subsequent 12 hours.
- Sea condition: Sea conditions are likely to be high around the system center covering the Gulf of Aden and adjoining areas of west-central and south-west ofthe Arabian Sea during the next 24 hours.
- Fisherman: The fisherman is advised not to venture into the Gulf of Aden and adjoining areas of west-central and south-west Arabian Sea during the next 48 hours.
The cyclonic storm is expected to lead to severe flash flooding and river flooding across the region resulting in loss of human life, livestock, and the destruction of crops, property and infrastructure. In addition to this, very heavy rainfall occurring across Western Yemen is likely to promote cholera infection rates in the week ahead. Though the storm is not going to affect Indian coastmuch, but IMD has generated early warning in the Indian coastal regions to avoid any mishappenings.